Patni looks good to go DOWN. Look at the charts. A big head and shoulder. My first pick eversince I decided to bet big.
Entry: ~ 510
SL: 520 (small trades), 540 (big position trades)
Target: ~ 470, 420, >400
RR: >3
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Shorting Opportunities
Patni looks good to go DOWN. Look at the charts. A big head and shoulder. My first pick eversince I decided to bet big.
Entry: ~ 510
SL: 520 (small trades), 540 (big position trades)
Target: ~ 470, 420, >400
RR: >3
New Style
Getting back to posting. I have modified and tweaked my trading style. After talking to a lot of HF managers and experiencing difficulties in managing small trades which provide small upsides, I will focus on select trades. Big trades. Bets will be big. So will rewards/ losses be. However, I still follow the same rules. My bets will be based on Macros, Charts and Fundamentals. So basically, I have no perticular style or asset class in mind.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Adani Power IPO
For valuation judgement read: Should you buy Adani Power?
Personal disclaimer: I have applied for the IPO in retail category.
My view on the company is for long term, so I intend to hold it for >2 years. Adani Power is already over-subscribed by 7 times on day 3. However, the bulk of these bids are coming in from institution investors. The retail segment is still 50% undersubscribed. With the IPO coming to a close tomorrow, it is unlikely that retail segment will be over-subscribed. Hence, do not over bid in estimation of over-subscription. My target bids are 93 and 95. On the upper side, you can bid for 97, if you are desperate. I do not expect a huge gap up listing. Potential upside for gap up is 25% on listing if market conditions remain stable.
Another advise is to hold cash for applying in NHPC IPO which opens next week.
Indian Equities - 07/31/2009
As we enter August series of Nifty F&O market:
·The U.S. initial jobless claims in US for the month of July closed at 584k. Initial claims are trending lower, indicating slow recovery. Firings are slowing down as economy recovers.
Despite worse than expected number, the US equity markets moved up due to better than expected 1st quarter results.
·Crude is still range bound. Oil majors, including Exxon and Shell, showed major drop in profit.
·Earnings season will come to an end. Upside due to strong results already priced in. Reliance Communication, Suzlon – both Nifty 50 stocks, will come up with results on 31st. Reliance communication has 2% weight on Nifty. Expect it to come up with stellar results. Next price target is Rs. 310. RCOM has a tremendous upside potential, and is recommended BUY.
·Suzlon may disappoint the market, however the company, with its recent GDR issuance is dealing with its debt problems and management has shown its commitment and efficiency to deal with the problem. It should remain range bound from Rs. 90 to Rs. 107, in short term. If the results are better than expected, then Suzlon could rise to Rs. 120 in August session. Long term view is BUY.
·Options Strategies: August series has shown bullish rollover of Open Interest. Shorts have stayed away till now. For low risk - Sell Nifty Calls at 5000 strike, Nifty puts at 4100. Exit strategy to follow. Ideal time to exit would be around 21st August if market remains range bound.
·Sell strangle for Suzlon at 120 call and 85 puts. Buy 280 strkie call for RCOM. Low risk/return.
·The U.S. initial jobless claims in US for the month of July closed at 584k. Initial claims are trending lower, indicating slow recovery. Firings are slowing down as economy recovers.
Despite worse than expected number, the US equity markets moved up due to better than expected 1st quarter results.
·Crude is still range bound. Oil majors, including Exxon and Shell, showed major drop in profit.
·Earnings season will come to an end. Upside due to strong results already priced in. Reliance Communication, Suzlon – both Nifty 50 stocks, will come up with results on 31st. Reliance communication has 2% weight on Nifty. Expect it to come up with stellar results. Next price target is Rs. 310. RCOM has a tremendous upside potential, and is recommended BUY.
·Suzlon may disappoint the market, however the company, with its recent GDR issuance is dealing with its debt problems and management has shown its commitment and efficiency to deal with the problem. It should remain range bound from Rs. 90 to Rs. 107, in short term. If the results are better than expected, then Suzlon could rise to Rs. 120 in August session. Long term view is BUY.
·Options Strategies: August series has shown bullish rollover of Open Interest. Shorts have stayed away till now. For low risk - Sell Nifty Calls at 5000 strike, Nifty puts at 4100. Exit strategy to follow. Ideal time to exit would be around 21st August if market remains range bound.
·Sell strangle for Suzlon at 120 call and 85 puts. Buy 280 strkie call for RCOM. Low risk/return.
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